Current salary planning data still shows a wide gap between normal merit movement and true promotion-level movement. That gap is the numerical reason the promotion raise vs merit raise debate matters so much. The headline percentage categories are not even playing the same game.
For merit raises, the center of the market in 2026 remains around the low-to-mid threes for employees who are meeting expectations, with stronger performers climbing into the fours, fives, and sometimes beyond. The data from Mercer and WorldatWork continues to show that top talent gets materially more than the average employee, but still usually inside a controlled budget framework.
Promotion raises live in a much wider band because they reflect job architecture more than annual budget philosophy. Moving from individual contributor to senior individual contributor is one kind of step. Moving from senior IC to people leadership is another. The bigger the discontinuity in scope, the larger the pay reset should be.
This is also where inflation-adjusted thinking helps. A merit raise that beats inflation may still be fine, while a promotion raise that barely beats inflation can still be under-market for the new role.
For the real-pay lens, read inflation vs raise. For broader sector context, compare these tables with our industry benchmarks. And if you want to translate percentages into actual monthly dollars, open the pay raise calculator.